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MAKE YOUR REAL ESTATE DECISION TODAY! Tomorrow might be too late..... OECD calls for Bank of Canada rate to more than double by end of 2015 The Canadian Press Nov 19, 2013 05:53:29 AM OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada may need to start hiking its trendsetting interest rate within the next year and steadily push it to 2.25 per cent by the end of 2015, according to an international think-tank representing the world’s leading economies. The central bank has kept its policy rate fixed at one per cent since September 2010, leading to one of the most stable and favourable borrowing environments in many decades. However, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said in a report Tuesday that with the Canadian and global economies about to return to more stable and predictable growth, that period is coming to an end. The Paris-based organization notes that Canada’s central bank has declared that given continued slack in the economy and below-target inflation, interest rates will not be raised for an extended period. “However, with spare capacity narrowing by the end of 2015, monetary policy tightening may need to begin by late 2014 to avoid a buildup of inflationary pressures,” it said. “It is assumed in the projection that the first policy rate increase occurs in the fourth quarter of 2014 and that the rate rises steadily to 2.25 per cent by the end of 2015.” Such an increase would likely lead to a corresponding hike in variable rates for Canadians and higher fixed mortgage costs, analysts said. However, most economists believe the central bank won’t budge off one per cent until the first quarter of 2015, and perhaps even later. In an advisory to clients Monday, Bank of Montreal economists Michael Gregory and Benjamin Reitzes said the central bank is unlikely to begin tightening until its U.S. counterpart has stopped easing, Canada experiences at least a couple of quarters of above-potential growth and until core inflation, now hovering just above one per cent, climbs closer to the bank’s two per cent target. “We suspect the bank will move cautiously for fear of fuelling too much Canadian dollar strength. We have the BoC hiking twice during 2015 (to 1.5 per cent), before the Fed joins the tightening party,” they wrote. The OECD is also worried about the recent revival of Canada’s housing market, although the report most likely did not take into account last week’s news that existing home sales had fallen back by 3.2 per cent in October, the first dip since February. “If house-price pressures re-emerge, further macro-prudential measures may also be required,” it said. The Bank of Canada can restrain the housing market by hiking interest rates, but has signalled that federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is in the best position to act because he can hone in directly on the problem. The minister reiterated last week that the government is prepared to tighten mortgage rules for the fifth time in about as many years if it becomes necessary. Overall, the OECD’s latest economic outlook sees momentum in Canada’s recovery, returning to 2.3 per cent growth in 2014 and 2.6 per cent in 2015 following two slack years of 1.7 per cent growth. “The pause in economic recovery since early 2012 has continued this year,” it notes. “(But) recovery in export markets and signs that Canadian firms are expanding into the fastest-growing emerging markets and investing more in innovation, marketing and efficiency improvements, should boost export growth.” This will eventually lead to a pick up in business investment, it added. The outlook and the analysis is similar to what the Bank of Canada issued last month and what Flaherty has plugged into his budgetary estimates for this year. The OECD sees the global economy as a whole strengthening in 2014 and 2015, but it cautions the recovery will be modest, in part because emerging markets have stopped producing near double-digit growth. Of advanced countries, it puts U.S. growth near the head of the class at 2.9 per cent next year, accelerating to 3.4 in 2015. The euro area will also emerge from recession, posting a one per cent advance in 2014 and 1.6 in 2015, the report predicts.
Why a REALTOR®? Maybe you're buying a home for the first time. Or maybe you're selling your old home to move to something new. Whether buying or selling, you’re involved in an intricate process requiring many specialists. One of these specialists might be a REALTOR®, who’s responsible for making the transaction as easy as possible for you. The REALTOR® Difference However, not every licensed or registered broker or salesperson is a REALTOR®. To be a REALTOR®, the agent must be a member of The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). And to be a member of CREA, an agent is expected to be: Committed to the REALTOR® Code: The code is the accepted standard of conduct for all real estate practitioners who are REALTORS®. It's your guarantee of professional conduct and the quality service. Read more about the REALTOR® Code. Knowledgeable about developments in real estate: A REALTOR® can get you the information needed to make an informed decision: comparable prices, neighborhood trends, housing market conditions and more. Actively updating education: Through courses, workshops and other professional development, a REALTOR® maintains a high level of current knowledge about real estate. Access: REALTORS® have access to Board MLS® Systems, which facilitate the cooperate sale of properties to benefit consumers. Benefits of a REALTOR® Whether buying or selling a home, you can trust that your REALTOR® will ensure the transaction is completed competently and professionally. You don’t have to worry about the details – your REALTOR® can take care of them for you. You can get advice from someone with an intimate knowledge of the local housing market. And you can count on the help of a professional who has committed to serve with integrity and competence.
Interest rates to remain low and on hold for longer Thursday, October 23, 2014 - 15:00 The Bank of Canada announced on October 22nd, 2014 that it was holding its trend-setting overnight lending rate at 1 per cent. Its most recent rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report suggest a number of reasons why interest rates aren’t going up anytime soon: 1) Recovery in exports not ready to stand on own legs. Recent growth in the U.S. has led to a weaker Canada–U.S. currency exchange rate. That is good news for Canadian exports to the U.S. , our largest trading partner. The Bank still expects that the engine for Canadian economic growth will switch from consumer spending to exports. A hike in its trend-setting interest rate would put that in jeopardy, so making that switch depends in part on the Canadian dollar remaining at its weakened level. 2) Business investment remains weak. Stronger investment is the other engine for Canadian economic growth that the Bank expects to take over from consumer spending. Stronger business investment continues to rely on -- and will likely lag -- a sustained improvement in exports. Stronger exports and investment both require that interest rates remain low. 3) Inflation is on target. The Bank said it views overall inflation as evolving in line with the Bank’s expectations. The Bank also said, “underlying inflationary pressures are muted”. That means it thinks its trend-setting policy interest rate is right where it needs to be. That makes raising or lowering it is unnecessary. Inflation remains close to the Bank’s 2 per cent target. 4) Global uncertainty. The Bank noted that global economic growth was weaker than it anticipated in its July Monetary Policy Report, and is facing headwinds. It also recognized a “significant correction in global financial markets”. European economic growth was revised down significantly over the forecast horizon. The recent decline in oil prices also introduces uncertainty for investment in Canada’s energy sector. 5) Canadian economic growth will be running below capacity for longer. The Bank pushed back the date as to when it expects the economy to return to full capacity. It previously expected it to happen “around mid-2016”. Now it expects it will take until “the second half of 2016”. As of October 22nd, 2014, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 4.79 per cent, unchanged from the previous Bank rate announcement in September and down 0.55 percentage points from one year ago. The next interest rate announcement will be on December 3rd, 2014. The next update to the Monetary Policy Report will be on January 21st, 2015. (CREA 10/22/2014)
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